Speaking Engagements

Why People Join, Renew, and Leave: A Behavioral Approach to Membership Marketing

 


As I have worked with associations over the years, I have often been asked questions such as, "What email should we send?" What ad should we run? What incentive should we offer?

Marketing tactics remain critical to acquiring and retaining members. However, the world is changing. Growing membership requires a more focused strategy than ever before. Here is the challenge. According to the annual Membership Marketing Benchmarking Report, the share of associations reporting membership gains has gradually declined over the past four years. In 2026, only 38 percent of associations reported an increase in membership, down from 49 percent. Acquiring, engaging, and retaining members is more challenging today than in the past.

To meet these challenges, I share many strategies to increase the effectiveness of membership marketing in my book, Membership Marketing from A to Z. A major theme that runs through the book is connecting what behavioral science has learned about decision-making with the marketing programs associations use to recruit and retain members.

Behavioral science asks a different question from the tactical questions that often dominate marketing discussions. Instead of beginning with what email to send or what offer to make, it asks: What is happening inside the prospect's mind? Once we begin to answer that question, our marketing choices become much clearer.

Understanding How People Make Decisions

The first step is to understand the mindset and needs of prospective and current members. Research is obviously an important component of this process. Qualitative and quantitative research can help associations identify the needs of prospective and current members. After all, some define marketing as finding a need and meeting it.

But we can take that knowledge a step further by considering the decision-making process people go through when they contemplate joining, engaging with, or renewing their membership.

Psychologists and behavioral scientists have studied decision-making extensively. In his widely used text, Persuasion: Theory and Research, Daniel J. O'Keefe discusses the Transtheoretical Model (TTM), which can offer a useful framework for understanding a prospect's or member’s decision-making process. The model outlines five stages that people move through when making and maintaining an important behavioral change.

The Five Stages of Behavioral Change

With TTM, the process begins with Precontemplation. When applied to membership, a prospective member may be unaware of the association and may not recognize a need for membership. There is little reason to expect action because the individual has not yet seriously considered the decision.

Once interest develops, the person enters the Contemplation stage. The prospect begins weighing the pros and cons. Is membership relevant? Does it provide sufficient value? Is it worth the cost and commitment?

If the benefits appear to outweigh the costs, the prospect moves toward Planning. An intention to join may now exist, but intention is not the same as action. Delay, distraction, and procrastination can still derail the decision.

The fourth stage is Action. At this point, the prospect may need an action-oriented interaction. This might include a clear call to action, an appropriate incentive, or simply a frictionless way to complete the transaction.

Importantly, the model does not end once the decision has been made. It includes Maintenance. People often seek reassurance after making an important decision. The new behavior needs reinforcement and support to continue.

This is where behavioral science begins to reshape how we approach membership marketing. Membership marketing is not simply a transaction. It is a relationship in which we help people progress through the stages of behavior change. If we understand where someone is in that process, we can tailor marketing strategies to them rather than relying on generic tactics.

Connecting Behavioral Science to the Membership Lifecycle

Understanding how people make decisions is interesting, but understanding alone does not increase membership. The practical question is: How should associations respond?

This is where I believe behavioral science and a relational marketing model converge. For associations, the Membership Lifecycle offers a systematic approach to guiding prospects and members through their relationship with an organization. It includes Awareness, Recruitment, Engagement, Renewal, and Winback.

Viewed through a behavioral science lens, the Membership Lifecycle is more than a marketing framework. Although the two models do not align perfectly, TTM helps us understand where an individual is psychologically, while the Membership Lifecycle organizes the association's marketing response. Together, they provide a framework to help prospects and members move toward the next decision.

Awareness: Creating Mutual Awareness

At the Awareness stage of the Lifecycle, prospects are primarily in Precontemplation or early Contemplation. They may not know the association exists, may not understand what it offers, or may not recognize that membership could benefit them. For example, the Association Member Experience Report by Higher Logic reports that the top reason prospects give for not joining an association is “I’m not aware of one that aligns with my industry/role/interests.”

One of the longstanding rules of thumb in marketing is the Rule of Seven. This rule holds that it takes multiple interactions before someone makes a buying decision. Whether the actual number is seven, more, or less is not the important point. The principle reminds us that decisions generally develop over time rather than happen instantly.

That is why the objective at this first stage is what I call mutual awareness. No one joins a membership organization unless they know it exists and believe it offers value. At the same time, an association will struggle to recruit prospective members if it cannot identify them and capture their contact information in its database.

Associations need to achieve both a share of mind and a share of the database. Prospects need to become aware of the association, while the association needs prospects to raise their hands by registering on a website, downloading a whitepaper, subscribing to a newsletter, attending a webinar, or otherwise identifying themselves and opting into further communication. When you know who they are and they know you, you have the opportunity to cultivate a relationship.

Content marketing, digital advertising, social media, and SEO can all support this process. But from a behavioral perspective, the purpose of these tools is not merely to generate clicks or impressions. Their role is to help move someone from Precontemplation and Contemplation to making a decision.

Recruitment: Turning Intention into Action

Once prospects understand the value an association can provide, they move into the Planning and Action stages of the decision process. Marketing needs to adjust.

Marketers sometimes call membership a “push” rather than a “pull” product. If you are a coffee drinker, you probably don't need an advertising campaign to convince you to seek out your morning cup. You already want it. Very few people, however, wake up thinking, “Today I need to find an association to join.” Membership generally needs to be actively marketed through recruitment.

Effective recruitment requires several key ingredients. First, a budget needs to be established, ideally not based on initial returns but on the lifetime value a new member will generate. Next, recruitment requires sufficient marketing frequency and reach. One-off recruitment will not work. Reaching as deeply as possible into the target market produces the highest volume of new members. Finally, offering an incentive to join gives an interested prospect a reason to act now. An incentive should not be viewed as a bribe. Its purpose is to motivate someone who already sees value in taking the action but has procrastinated.

At this stage in the decision process, even small barriers matter. A confusing application, a broken link, or a difficult payment process can interrupt Action and lead to abandonment.

Engagement: Affirming the Decision

Once someone joins, the behavioral objective shifts again to support and maintain the decision through Engagement.

Have you ever bought a new pair of running shoes, a car, or even an expensive smartphone, only to later wonder, “Did I make the right decision?” Psychologists call this discomfort cognitive dissonance. After making an important decision, people naturally seek reassurance that they chose wisely.

Joining an association is no different. A new member has committed money and, potentially, time. If the member does not quickly experience value or receive affirmation, questions about whether joining was worthwhile can begin to emerge. TTM identifies this as the Maintenance stage. The decision has been made, but the new behavior has not necessarily become established.

New members need an onboarding program that confirms, “I made a good decision.” These recent members are particularly vulnerable to attrition. Benchmarking data show that first-year members renew at a rate 10 points lower than tenured members. Additionally, ongoing engagement marketing supports the renewal of longer-term members, especially those who show no behavioral indicators of usage. Encouraging interaction, whether attending a program, visiting the website, completing a survey, making a purchase, or contacting the association, correlates positively with renewal. The behavioral objective of engagement is to help members maintain and reinforce the decision to belong.

Renewal: Reasserting Value and Status

At the Renewal stage, members are not all in the same psychological state. Some remain comfortably in Maintenance, while others have slipped back into Contemplation and are reassessing whether membership is worthwhile.

In addition to evaluating the association’s value, another complication is that members are sometimes simply confused about their membership status. In one association survey, only 85 percent of current members correctly identified themselves as members, yet 23 percent of former members and 15 percent of people who had never been members also believed they were current members. The Membership Marketing Benchmarking Report has also consistently identified “forgot to renew” as a key reason members give for lapsing.

These issues tell us something important about renewal marketing. The job is not simply to send a renewal notice. Associations need to reassert their value and membership status.

Given these challenges, a synchronized, multichannel, higher-frequency campaign can help members understand their status, remember the value they receive, and complete the renewal process. Associations can also reduce renewal friction by offering automatic renewal, installment plans, multiyear memberships, and other flexible payment options.

Winback: Restoring the Relationship

Finally, some members will lapse. From a behavioral perspective, many have reverted to Contemplation. They are again questioning the value or relevance of membership.

There will always be bumps in the road in any relationship, and membership relationships are no exception. But restoring an existing relationship often makes more sense than starting a new one. The Winback stage of the Lifecycle aims to understand what happened, address the problem where possible, and invite the former member back. As the old proverb advises, “Look where you tripped, not where you fell.”

Importantly, a lapsed member is not necessarily dissatisfied. Former members frequently cite reasons for leaving that have little to do with the association's quality: an employer stopped paying dues, they changed jobs, they lacked time, experienced a family emergency, encountered difficulty with the renewal process, or simply thought they had already renewed.

These circumstances can change. That is why successful membership organizations continue to communicate with former members rather than assume the relationship is permanently over.

Marketing to the Member's Mindset

When membership is static or declining, associations naturally seek an explanation. They may conclude they have a value problem or that their marketing simply is not working. Sometimes that is true. But another possibility deserves consideration. The marketing may be misaligned with where prospects and members are psychologically.

An association may ask prospects to join before they understand the value of membership. Conversely, after establishing value, it may fail to make a clear ask and provide a reason to act. Once people join, the organization may neglect the cognitive dissonance that follows a decision and fail to affirm that the new member made a good choice. At renewal, it may assume the member understands both the ongoing value and the current status of the relationship. And when a member lapses, it may give up on a relationship that could still be restored.

Combining the psychology of decision-making with the Membership Lifecycle offers a different approach to membership marketing. Instead of starting with a tactic, start with the individual. Ask, “Where is this prospect or member in the decision-making process?” Then determine which marketing tactic will help that person take the next step.

Viewed this way, the Membership Lifecycle is a marketing process that supports people's decision-making. Each stage aims to help people advance in their relationship with the association.

 

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